radhydРадиационная гигиенаRadiatsionnaya Gygiena = Radiation Hygiene1998-426X2409-9082NIIRG10.21514/1998-426X-2017-10-1-65-75radhyd-498Research ArticleНаучные статьиScientific articlesРоль искажающих факторов в радоновом эпидемиологическом исследованииThe role of confounding factors in a radon epidemiological studyОнищенкоА. Д.OnishchenkoA. D.

научный сотрудник

Researcher

onischenko@ecko.uran.ruЖуковскийМ. В.ZhukovskyM. V.

доктор технических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник, директор

Doctor of Technical Science, Professor, Director, Chief Researcher

Институт промышленной экологии Уральского отделения РАНРоссияInstitute of Industrial Ecology, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation2017050420171016575Copyright © Онищенко А.Д., Жуковский М.В., 20172017Онищенко А.Д., Жуковский М.В.Onishchenko A.D., Zhukovsky M.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.radhyg.ru/jour/article/view/498

Цель: моделирование масштабного эпидемиологического исследования случай – контроль по выявлению связи между облучением радоном и раком легкого при наличии факторов, искажающих результаты оценки экспозиции по объемной активности радона в жилищах. Материалы и методы: анализ источников неопределенностей, возникающих в ходе эпидемиологических радоновых исследований случай – контроль. Оценка численных значений неопределенностей, обусловленных погрешностями средств измерений, долговременными вариациями объемной активности радона, облучением радоном в иных местах пребывания человека, кроме жилища, и др. Моделирование методом Монте-Карло радонового эпидемиологического исследования, сопоставимого по численности с объединенным европейским радоновым исследованием, и оценка влияния неопределенностей на оценку зависимости доза – эффект. Результаты: показано, что мультипликативная погрешность при оценке индивидуальной экспозиции по объемной активности радона в основном обусловлена совокупным влиянием  долговременных вариаций объемной активности радона и различиями в уровнях радона в жилищах и остальных местах пребывания человека и имеет значение логарифмического стандартного отклонения σerr от 0,70 до 0,90. Оцененное значение погрешности в 2 раза выше, чем величина, использованная для коррекции результатов объединенного европейского радонового исследования.Показано, что для значений σerr<0,9 метод регрессионной калибровки позволяет полностью скорректировать влияние неопределенностей при правильной оценке погрешности. Выводы: ошибка в определении погрешности экспозиции по объемной активности радона в объединенном европейском радоновом исследовании случай – контроль привела к занижению значения относительного риска рака легкого в 1,5 раза.

Objective: A simulation of a large-scale epidemiological case-control study to identify the relationship between exposure to radon and lung cancer in the presence of factors that distort the results of the assessment of exposure to radon in homes. Materials and Methods: Analysis of sources of uncertainties arising during radon epidemiologic case-control studies. Evaluation of the uncertainties caused by the errors of the measurements of the long-term variations in the radon concentration, exposure to radon in other places of the human habitat, except dwellings, etc. Simulation by Monte Carlo technique of radon epidemiologic study, comparable to the combined European radon study, and assessment of uncertainties, which affect the evaluation of dose-effect dependence. Results: The multiplicative error in the assessment of individual exposure based on the radon concentration is shown generally caused by the combined effect of long-term variations of the radon concentration and the differences in the levels of the radon concentration in living houses and other places of the human habitat. The logarithmic standard deviation of this errors σerr is from 0,70 to 0,90. The estimated value of this error is 2,0 times higher than the value used for correction of the results of the combined European radon study. It is shown that for the σerr <0,9 regression calibration technique, there is a possibility to make a full correction of uncertainty. Conclusion: Errors in the assessment of uncertainties of the radon exposure based on the radon concentration in the combine European radon case-control study has led to an underestimation of the relative risk of lung cancer incidence at least with a factor of 1,5.

радонрак легкогоисследования случай – контрольпогрешностимоделированиеRadonlung cancercase-control studiesuncertaintiesmodelingReferencesUNSCEAR, 2009. United Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic radiation (UNSCEAR). UNSCEAR 2006 Report: Annexe E: Source-to-effects assessment for radon in homes and workplaces. New York: United Nations. 2009, pp. 195–334.UNSCEAR, 2009. United Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic radiation (UNSCEAR). UNSCEAR 2006 Report: Annexe E: Source-to-effects assessment for radon in homes and workplaces. New York: United Nations. 2009, pp. 195–334.Krewski D., Lubin J.H., Zielinski J.M. [et al.] Residential Radon and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Combined Analysis of 7 North American Case-Control Studies. Epidemiology. 2005, Vol. 16, pp. 137–145.Krewski D., Lubin J.H., Zielinski J.M. [et al.] Residential Radon and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Combined Analysis of 7 North American Case-Control Studies. Epidemiology. 2005, Vol. 16, pp. 137–145.Darby S., Hill D., Auvinen A., [et al.] Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies. British Medical Journal. 2005, Vol. 330, pp. 223–227.Darby S., Hill D., Auvinen A., [et al.] Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies. British Medical Journal. 2005, Vol. 330, pp. 223–227.Darby S., Hill D., Auvinen A. [et al.] Residential radon and lung cancer: detailed results of a collaborative analysis of individual data on 7148 subjects with lung cancer and 14208 subjects without lung cancer from 13 epidemiologic studies in Europe. Scand. J. Work, Environment and Health. 2006, Vol. 32, Supp. 1, pp. 1–83.Darby S., Hill D., Auvinen A. [et al.] Residential radon and lung cancer: detailed results of a collaborative analysis of individual data on 7148 subjects with lung cancer and 14208 subjects without lung cancer from 13 epidemiologic studies in Europe. Scand. J. Work, Environment and Health. 2006, Vol. 32, Supp. 1, pp. 1–83.Lubin J.H., Wang Z.Y., Boice J.D. [et al.] Risk of lung cancer and residential radon in China: pooled results of two studies. Int. J. Cancer. 2004, Vol. 109, pp. 132–137.Lubin J.H., Wang Z.Y., Boice J.D. [et al.] Risk of lung cancer and residential radon in China: pooled results of two studies. Int. J. Cancer. 2004, Vol. 109, pp. 132–137.Muirhead C.R. Exposure Assessment: Implications for Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. 2008, Vol. 132, № 2, pp. 134–138.Muirhead C.R. Exposure Assessment: Implications for Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. 2008, Vol. 132, № 2, pp. 134–138.Масюк, С.В. Влияние неопределенностей в дозах на оценку радиационных рисков / С.В.Масюк, С.В.Шкляр, А.Г. Кукуш, С.Е. Вавилов // Радиация и риск. – 2008. – Т. 17, №3. – С. 64–75.Масюк, С.В. Влияние неопределенностей в дозах на оценку радиационных рисков / С.В.Масюк, С.В.Шкляр, А.Г. Кукуш, С.Е. Вавилов // Радиация и риск. – 2008. – Т. 17, №3. – С. 64–75.Heid I.M., Kuchenhoff H., Wellmann J. [et al.] On the potential of measurement error to induce differential bias on odds ratio estimates: an example from radon epidemiology. Statist. Med. 2002, Vol. 21, pр. 3261–3278.Heid I.M., Kuchenhoff H., Wellmann J. [et al.] On the potential of measurement error to induce differential bias on odds ratio estimates: an example from radon epidemiology. Statist. Med. 2002, Vol. 21, pр. 3261–3278.Lubin J.H., Boice Jr. J.D., Samet J.M. Errors in exposure assessment,statistical power and the interpretation of residential radon studies. Radiation Research. 1995, Vol. 144, pp. 329–341.Lubin J.H., Boice Jr. J.D., Samet J.M. Errors in exposure assessment,statistical power and the interpretation of residential radon studies. Radiation Research. 1995, Vol. 144, pp. 329–341.Fearn T., Hill D.C., Darby S.C. Measurement Error in the Explanatory Variable of a Binary Regression: Regression Calibration and Integrated Conditional Likelihood in Studies of Residential Radon and Lung Cancer. Statist. Med. 2008, Vol. 27, pp. 2159–2176.Fearn T., Hill D.C., Darby S.C. Measurement Error in the Explanatory Variable of a Binary Regression: Regression Calibration and Integrated Conditional Likelihood in Studies of Residential Radon and Lung Cancer. Statist. Med. 2008, Vol. 27, pp. 2159–2176.Howarth C.B., Miles J.C.H. Results of the 2001 NRPB Intercomparison of Passive Radon Detectors. National Radiation Protection Board. Chilton. 2002, Report NRPB – W21.Howarth C.B., Miles J.C.H. Results of the 2001 NRPB Intercomparison of Passive Radon Detectors. National Radiation Protection Board. Chilton. 2002, Report NRPB – W21.Howarth C.B. Results of the 2005 Health Protection Agency Intercomparison of Passive Radon Detectors. Health Protection Agency. Chilton. 2006, Report HPA-RPD-035.Howarth C.B. Results of the 2005 Health Protection Agency Intercomparison of Passive Radon Detectors. Health Protection Agency. Chilton. 2006, Report HPA-RPD-035.Онищенко, А.Д. Влияние временных вариаций уровней радона и погрешностей измерений на оценку средних сезонных значений объемной активности радона в помещении / А.Д. Онищенко, М.В. Жуковский, А.В. Васильев // АНРИ. – 2013. – № 3. – С. 2–12.Onischenko A.D., Zhukovsky M.V., Vasilev A.V. Influence of time variations of radon levels on assessment of average season values of radon concentration in the room. ANRI, 2013, No 3, pp. 2–12 (in Russian).Lomas P.R., Green B.M.R. Temporal variations of radon levels in dwellings. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. 1994, Vol. 56, pp. 323–325.Lomas P.R., Green B.M.R. Temporal variations of radon levels in dwellings. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. 1994, Vol. 56, pp. 323–325.Hunter N., Howarth C.B., Miles J.C.H. [et al.] Year-to-year variations in radon levels in a sample of UK houses with the same occupants. Radioactivity in the Environment. 2005, Vol. 7, pp. 438–447.Hunter N., Howarth C.B., Miles J.C.H. [et al.] Year-to-year variations in radon levels in a sample of UK houses with the same occupants. Radioactivity in the Environment. 2005, Vol. 7, pp. 438–447.Martz D.E., Rood A.S., George J.L. [et al.] Year-to-year variations in annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations. Health Phys. 1991, Vol. 61, No 3, pp. 409–413.Martz D.E., Rood A.S., George J.L. [et al.] Year-to-year variations in annual average indoor 222Rn concentrations. Health Phys. 1991, Vol. 61, No 3, pp. 409–413.Steck D.J. Year-to-year indoor radon variation. Proc. of the 2007 AARST International Symposium Jacksonville, FL. 2008, pp. 1–11.Steck D.J. Year-to-year indoor radon variation. Proc. of the 2007 AARST International Symposium Jacksonville, FL. 2008, pp. 1–11.Zugui Zhang, Smith B., Steck D.J. [et al.] Variation in yearly residential radon concentrations in the upper Midwest. Health Phys. 2007, Vol. 93, No 4, pp. 288–297.Zugui Zhang, Smith B., Steck D.J. [et al.] Variation in yearly residential radon concentrations in the upper Midwest. Health Phys. 2007, Vol. 93, No 4, pp. 288–297.Steck D.J. Annual average indoor radon variations over two decades. Health Phys. 2009, Vol. 96, No 1, pp. 37–47.Steck D.J. Annual average indoor radon variations over two decades. Health Phys. 2009, Vol. 96, No 1, pp. 37–47.Bochicchio F., Ampollini M., Antignani S. [et.al.] Results of the first 5 years of a study on year-to-year variations of radon concentration in Italian dwellings. Radiation Measurements. 2009, Vol. 44, pp. 1064–1068.Bochicchio F., Ampollini M., Antignani S. [et.al.] Results of the first 5 years of a study on year-to-year variations of radon concentration in Italian dwellings. Radiation Measurements. 2009, Vol. 44, pp. 1064–1068.Kelleher K.A., McLaughlin J.P., Fenton D., Colgan P.A. Comparison of contemporary and retrospective radon gas measurements in high radon dwellings in Ireland. Proc. of 2-nd European IRPA congress on radiation protection. Paris, 2006: https://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/38/027/38027853.pdf (дата обращения: 02.02.2017 г.).Kelleher K.A., McLaughlin J.P., Fenton D., Colgan P.A. Comparison of contemporary and retrospective radon gas measurements in high radon dwellings in Ireland. Proc. of 2-nd European IRPA congress on radiation protection. Paris, 2006: https://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/38/027/38027853.pdf (дата обращения: 02.02.2017 г.).Birovljev A., Falk R., Walsh C. [et al.] Retrospective assessment of historic radon concentrations in Norwegian dwellings by measuring glass implanted Po-210 – an international field inter comparison. Proc. Radon in the Living Environment. Athens, Greece. 1999, pp. 817–827.Birovljev A., Falk R., Walsh C. [et al.] Retrospective assessment of historic radon concentrations in Norwegian dwellings by measuring glass implanted Po-210 – an international field inter comparison. Proc. Radon in the Living Environment. Athens, Greece. 1999, pp. 817–827.Bochicchio F., McLaughlin J.P., Walsh C. Comparison of radon exposure assessment results: 210Po surface activity on glass objects vs. contemporary air radon concentration. Radiation Measurements. 2003, Vol. 36, pp. 211–215.Bochicchio F., McLaughlin J.P., Walsh C. Comparison of radon exposure assessment results: 210Po surface activity on glass objects vs. contemporary air radon concentration. Radiation Measurements. 2003, Vol. 36, pp. 211–215.Falk R., Almren K., Ostergren I. Experience from retrospective radon exposure estimations for individuals in a radon epidemiological study using solid-state nuclear track detectors. The Science of the Total Environment. 2001, Vol. 272, pp. 61–66.Falk R., Almren K., Ostergren I. Experience from retrospective radon exposure estimations for individuals in a radon epidemiological study using solid-state nuclear track detectors. The Science of the Total Environment. 2001, Vol. 272, pp. 61–66.Lagarde F., Falk R., Almren K. [et al.] Glass-based radonexposure assessment and lung cancer risk. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environ. Epidemiology. 2002, Vol. 12, pp. 344–354.Lagarde F., Falk R., Almren K. [et al.] Glass-based radonexposure assessment and lung cancer risk. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environ. Epidemiology. 2002, Vol. 12, pp. 344–354.Dicu T., Armencea S.E. (Mutoiu), Burghele B. [et al.] Retrospective dosimetry of radon gas based on the activity of 210Po in glass objects. Rom. Journ. Phys. 2014, Vol. 59, No 9–10, pp. 1067–1073.Dicu T., Armencea S.E. (Mutoiu), Burghele B. [et al.] Retrospective dosimetry of radon gas based on the activity of 210Po in glass objects. Rom. Journ. Phys. 2014, Vol. 59, No 9–10, pp. 1067–1073.Gusain G.S., Rautela B.S., Ramola R.C. Estimation of past radon exposure to indoor radon from embedded 210Po in household glass. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. 2012, Vol. 152, No 1–3, pp. 46–50.Gusain G.S., Rautela B.S., Ramola R.C. Estimation of past radon exposure to indoor radon from embedded 210Po in household glass. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. 2012, Vol. 152, No 1–3, pp. 46–50.Steck D. J., Alavanja M. C. R., Field R. W. [et al.] 210Po implanted in glass surfaces by long term exposure to indoor radon. Health Phys. 2002, Vol. 83, No 2, pp. 261–271.Steck D. J., Alavanja M. C. R., Field R. W. [et al.] 210Po implanted in glass surfaces by long term exposure to indoor radon. Health Phys. 2002, Vol. 83, No 2, pp. 261–271.Yarmoshenko I.V., Kirdin I.A., Zunic Z.S., [et al.] Indoor radon long-term variation assessment. Radioactivity in the Environment. 2005, Vol. 7, pp. 726–730.Yarmoshenko I.V., Kirdin I.A., Zunic Z.S., [et al.] Indoor radon long-term variation assessment. Radioactivity in the Environment. 2005, Vol. 7, pp. 726–730.Zunic Z.S., Yarmoshenko I.V., Birovljev A. [et al.] Radon survey in the high natural radiation region of Niska Banja, Serbia. J. of Environ. Radioactivity. 2007, Vol. 92, pp. 165–174.Zunic Z.S., Yarmoshenko I.V., Birovljev A. [et al.] Radon survey in the high natural radiation region of Niska Banja, Serbia. J. of Environ. Radioactivity. 2007, Vol. 92, pp. 165–174.Zunic Z.S., Yarmoshenko I.V., Kelleher K. [et al.] Comparison of retrospective and contemporary indoor radon measurements in a high-radon area of Serbia. Science of the Total Environment. 2007, Vol. 387, pp. 269–275.Zunic Z.S., Yarmoshenko I.V., Kelleher K. [et al.] Comparison of retrospective and contemporary indoor radon measurements in a high-radon area of Serbia. Science of the Total Environment. 2007, Vol. 387, pp. 269–275.Онищенко, А.Д. Определение индивидуальной экспозиции по объемной активности радона при смешанном производственно-бытовом облучении / А.Д. Онищенко, М.В. Жуковский // АНРИ. – 2016. – № 3. – С. 2–8.Onischenko A.D., Zhukovsky M.V. Assessment of individual radon exposure at combine radon exposure at home and at work. ANRI, 2016, No 3, pp. 2–8 (In Russian).Peto R., Lopez A., Boreham J. [et al.] Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation from national vital statistics. 1992, Vol. 339, pp. 1268–1278.Peto R., Lopez A., Boreham J. [et al.] Mortality from tobacco in developed countries: indirect estimation from national vital statistics. 1992, Vol. 339, pp. 1268–1278.Graham H. Smoking prevalence among women in the European community 1950-1990. Soc. Sci. Med. 1996, Vol. 43, No 2, pp. 243–254.Graham H. Smoking prevalence among women in the European community 1950-1990. Soc. Sci. Med. 1996, Vol. 43, No 2, pp. 243–254.Zatoński W., Przewoźniak K., Sulkowska U. [et al.] Tobacco smoking in countries of the European Union. Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine. 2012, Vol. 19, No 2, pp. 181–192.Zatoński W., Przewoźniak K., Sulkowska U. [et al.] Tobacco smoking in countries of the European Union. Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine. 2012, Vol. 19, No 2, pp. 181–192.Николаев, В.А. Твердотельные трековые детекторы в радиационных исследованиях / В.А. Николаев. – СПб.: Изд-во Политехн. ун-та, 2012. – 283 с.Nikolaev V.A. Solid-state track detectors in the radiation studies. SPb., 2012, 283 p. (in Russian).Zhukovsky M., Onischenko A., Bastrikov V. Radon measurements – discussion of error estimates for selected methods. Applied Radiation and Isotopes. 2010, Vol. 68, pp. 816–820.Zhukovsky M., Onischenko A., Bastrikov V. Radon measurements – discussion of error estimates for selected methods. Applied Radiation and Isotopes. 2010, Vol. 68, pp. 816–820.Hoffmann W., Arvela H.S., Marsh J.W. [et all.] ICRU Report 88. Measurement and reporting of radon exposures. J. of ICRU. 2012, Vol.12, No 2.Hoffmann W., Arvela H.S., Marsh J.W. [et all.] ICRU Report 88. Measurement and reporting of radon exposures. J. of ICRU. 2012, Vol.12, No 2.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.