Safety analysis of wind-induced resuspension of radioactive materials from the Techensky reservoir cascade coastline

The paper provides an assessment of the probability and consequences of external events capable of leading to an incident with a breach of established safety barriers restricting the spread of radioactive substances along the coastline of the Techensky reservoir cascade. The initiating events for such an incident could be adverse meteorological conditions resulting in a decrease in the water level in the cascade water bodies below the specified design levels. Drying out the surface of previously inundated sections of the coastline will create an extensive source of atmospheric contamination by technogenic radionuclides during wind-induced resuspension. The probable area of the dried-out sections will be 0.02 — 0.08 kml for reservoir V-3, 0.06 — 0.28 kml for reservoir V-4, 0.19 — 0.90 kml for reservoir V-10, and 0.47 — 2.19 kml for reservoir V-11. The cumulative inventory of ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr in the specified area exceeds 10⁵ Bq/ml. The activity released into the atmosphere within an hour will range from 3.69∙10⁸ to 8.48∙10¹¹ Bq for the wind speeds of 5 m/s and 20 m/s, respectively. The probabilities of joint occurrence of strong winds and drought conditions are 6.8∙10^-7 per year for a wind speed of 20 m/s and 2.1∙10^-3 per year for a wind speed of 5 m/s. The highest values of effective dose for the population of the nearest settlements, reaching 1-3 μSv in the first 10 days and over 200 μSv in the first year, are achieved under extreme wind loads with wind speeds of 20 m/s or more.

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