ADDITION TO THE QUASI-BIOLOGICAL MODEL OF RADIOGENIC CANCER MORBIDITY

Object: The purpose was to refine the quasi-biological model of the incidence of radiogenic solid cancer (published by the authors earlier in the journal “Radiation hygiene”) to ensure better consistency with the Japanese cohort data and with the ICRP model in part of the description of the effect of age at exposure.

Results: Initial presuppositions of a mathematical model was supplemented by the assumption that stem cells, received the “pre-cancerous” defect of DNA, with a higher probability compared to the intact cells follow the path of reproduction but not of differentiation. Structure of the refined model and its properties did not change, but one parameter was added. Analysis of the base mathematical relations of the supplemented model showed that there was no contradiction between the models of radiogenic cancer incidence presented in the Publication 103 ICRP and in the UNSCEAR 2006, despite their external differences.

Conclusion: Further work with the model requires the verification of parameter values by comparison with the epidemiological data, primarily with data on the incidence of solid cancers in the Japanese cohort. However, since some of the assumptions of the model, including the new one, are not purely radiobiological, it would require analysis of a wider range of biological and cancer patterns.

1. Gubin А.Т., Redko V.I., Sakovich V.A Quasi-biological model of radiogenic cancer morbidity. Radiatsionnaya gygiena = Radiation Hygiene, 2015, Vol.8, №4, pp. 23-31. (in Russian).

2. ICRP, 2007. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 103. Ann. ICRP 37 (2-4). (in Russian).

3. Preston D.L., Ron E., S. Tokuoka [et al.]. Solid cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors: 1958–1998. Radiat. Res., 2007, Vol. 168, pp. 1–64.

4. Gubin А.Т., Sakovich V.A. Analysis of generalized models of radiogenic risk. Part 1. ICRP models Radiatsiya i risk = Radiation and risk,2016, Vol. 25, № 4, pp. 48-62. (in Russian).

5. Gubin А.Т., Kovalev Е.Е., Sakovich V.A. Model of the lethality probability from radiation and other hazards. Atomnaya energiya = Atomic energy, Vol.72, № .6, 1992, pp. 604-612. (in Russian).

6. Gubin А.Т., Gogoleva V.I. Redko V.I, Sakovich V.A. Radiation Risk Load Model and its Modifications. Problemy analiza riska = Issues of risk analysis, 2004, Vol. 1, pp. 76-98. (in Russian).

7. Gavrilov L.А., Gavrilova N.S., Ed.: Skulachev V.P. Biology of lifetime. 2nd edition revised and enlarged, Мoscow, Nauka, 1991, 280 p. (in Russian).

8. Gubin А.Т., Sakovich V.A. Mathematical model of intensity of radiation mortality during irradiation in childhood. Atomnaya energiya = Atomic energy, 1999, Vol. 87, №. 2, pp. 159-161. (in Russian).

9. Preston D.L., Shimizu Y., Pierce D.A. [et al.]. Studies of mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 13: Solid cancer and non-cancer disease mortality 1950–1997. Radiat. Res., 2003, Vol. 160, pp. 381–407.