Comparison of early forecasts of the incidence of thyroid cancer in residents of the Russian Federation after the Chernobyl accident with observational data

A review of methods for assessing doses in the thyroid gland, predictions of the long-term consequences of its irradiation and the actual incidence of thyroid cancer in residents of four regions of the Russian Federation with the most significant radioactive fallout after the Chernobyl accident are presented. The method for assessing doses in the thyroid gland is based on the results of monitoring in May-June 1986 of radioiodine in the environment, food and in the body of residents. Thyroid doses in the population were used to justify medical and social protection measures, as well as epidemiological studies. In addition, the authorities needed forecasts of the possible morbidity of the population in order to organize adequate medical care. Most of the thyroid cancer cases were predicted among the adult population, which was not confirmed by observations 35 years after the accident. The prognosis of the incidence of thyroid cancer in preschool children differed in different studies due to the use of different coefficients of reducing the biological effectiveness of 131I radiation in the thyroid gland and long-term external and internal irradiation of the whole body with a low dose rate compared to the effect of acute exposure. The increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among children began five years after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Examples of the dynamics of the incidence for children in the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation are given. The 2018 UNSCEAR Report showed that for 1986-2015, among children and adolescents under 18 years of age on the day of the accident in Belarus, Ukraine and four regions of Russia, more than 19 thousand thyroid cancer cases were detected, of which the share of radiation-induced diseases was estimated at 25%. For four regions of Russia, this amounts to 460 cases with a range of possible estimates from 130 to 900 cases. The highest morbidity was manifested among younger children exposed at the age of 0-4 years. In older children and adolescents, the proportion of radiation-induced diseases has significantly decreased 30 years after the accident. In general, early forecasts of radiation-induced thyroid cancer incidence in children in four regions of the Russian Federation with high levels of radioactive fallout are consistent with the data of subsequent 30-year epidemiological observations within an order of magnitude. With regard to thyroid cancer in adults, such a comparison is difficult, since no radiogenic increase in the incidence has been detected.

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