On the Techa’s reservoirs cascade influence on the long-term forecast of the Techa river radioactive contamination

In 1949–1956 years, the Techa river was exposed to the intense radioactive contamination, which consequences are not overcome up to now. Currently, the Techa Cascade of Water Reservoirs is the only source of contamination of this river that could be managed. In February 2016 the Chief Executive Officer of the State Corporation “ROSATOM” approved the «Strategic master-plan on the solution of the problems of the Techa Reservoir Cascade» providing a novel look at an issue of remediation of the Techa river. The aim of the article is the implementation of the modern radiation protection system to the existing or potential exposure situations of public residing near the Techa river and an analysis of possible features, events, and processes considered in the longterm forecasts performed in the field of public radiation safety. Although the current radiation state of the Techa River is relatively stable, the task of refining the traditional phenomenological retrospective analysis covering the assessment of the past and current radiation exposure and environmental impacts is considered quite relevant. The Calculation- monitoring complex “TCR-Prognoz” was developed in the framework of the “Strategic Master Plan”. This complex enables to evaluate multivariate scenario calculations resulting in long-term forecasts of radioactive contamination levels in the Techa River and its floodplain, depending on various sets of environmental conditions and anthropogenic factors. Complex radiation surveys to define the detailed character and the time frames of economic activities permitted under the existing radiation safety requirements in the floodplain of the Techa river are recommended to be started after 2020. By this time, the first steady effects associated with the “Strategic Master Plan” implementation will become evident, including those resulting from the efforts aimed at simultaneous minimization of radionuclide discharges into the river under the normal operation of the Techa Cascade of water reservoirs and the potential of the emergency contamination due to its overflow

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