Age-sex model of smoking intensity for the population exposed to radiation in the Southern Urals

The study of smoking probability and intensity in the Ural region is for the subsequent analysis of combined smoking and radiation effect on lung cancer risk. The smoking dose - number of cigarettes per day smoked by a conditional cohort member of a certain sex and age (the product of smoking probability and an average smoking intensity) was introduced. The study purpose is developing a sex- and age-specific smoking dose model. Materials and Methods: The smoking information register was used (48,694 records for 24,587 Ural residents born in 1889–1997). Smokers are the people who had ever smoked. The probability theory, distribution analysis and regression analysis were used. Results and Discussion: The smoking intensity increases up to 40 years, and then becomes constant and equal to 17.5 and 10 cigarettes per day for men and women, respectively. The smoking probability increases with age up to 30 years, and then it decreases. The smoking probability in men over 18 years exceeds 40%. For women, the smoking probability is ≤ 5% at any age. Smoking doses of a conditional men and women aged 35 years are 12.2 and 0.3 cigarettes per day, respectively. An algorithm for smoking dose assigning was formulated to analyze the effects in the South Urals Population Exposed to Radiation cohort. The results should be extrapolated to other territories and generations with caution. Conclusion: The proposed method of smocking dose assigning can be used in other epidemiological cohorts with insufficient individual data. Evaluation of model uncertainly and model impact on the joint analysis of radiation and non-radiation risks is the further directions of the study.

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