On the use of national medical and demographic data in radiation risk assessment in the low-dose range

Transferring radiation risk models between populations remains a methodological challenge. Estimates of lifetime risk and radiation detriment depend not only on dose and model parameters, but also on the health and demographic characteristics of the population assessed. Objective: to analyse the influence of Russian population data on radiation risk estimates obtained using the International Commission on Radiological Protection methodology. Materials and Methods: The radiation detriment calculation procedure described in International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 152 was analysed, including excess absolute and relative risk models, lifetime risk calculation using the cancer-free survival function, age and sex structure, and adjustment for severity. Calculations used cancer incidence, mortality, cancer-free survival, and lethality data for Russian and reference populations. Results and Discussion: Differences in baseline cancer incidence substantially affected estimates based on the relative risk model. Using the cancer-free survival function of a population with lower mortality increased the lifetime risk of radiation-induced bladder cancer in Russian males by approximately 1.5-fold, but did not eliminate the approximately twofold difference in baseline incidence at older ages. Baseline incidence and cancer-free survival may have opposing effects on betweenpopulation risk differences. Use of lethality data inconsistent with the population assessed substantially changes radiation detriment estimates. Conclusion: National health and demographic data increase the population specificity of expected radiation effect estimates; however, input data and interpretation should depend on the assessment purpose. For specific exposure situations, actual population, cohort, or clinical data should be used where appropriate. Population-specific risk estimates should not automatically justify relaxation of radiation protection requirements.

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